Main Takeaway: Location is critical for multifamily investors and owners. Highlights from a number of recent reporting suggest the following multifamily markets will outperform in 2023: Nashville, Charlotte, New York, and Atlanta.
Story: Real estate is hyper-local. The fundamentals of one market are generally not applicable to another. Over the past few months, there has been a series of reports outlining the top real estate markets to keep an eye on as we head into troubled economic times in 2023. Here are the highlights from recent reporting that multifamily investors and owners should keep in mind.
Cadre released its market forecast for all commercial real estate types, including multifamily, in November, highlighting the best places to invest based on job and population growth. These are the cities that show strong potential for 2023.
The report notes that these markets were chosen in part due to apartment rents being priced more affordably than the price of home ownership, putting upward pressure on rental demand. Of note, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Nashville, were the only markets that were featured in all three categories—industrial, office, and multifamily.
Once a month Yardi Matrix releases its Multifamily National Report, and the report in December contained rent growth projections for top markets as we head into 2023. Here are the top markets poised for growth amidst moderating rent growth and economic headwinds.
According to Redfin, “Housing markets in relatively affordable Midwest and East Coast metros, especially in the Chicago area and parts of Connecticut and upstate New York, will hold up relatively well, even as the U.S. market cools. Those areas tend to be more stable than expensive coastal areas, and they didn’t heat up as much during the pandemic homebuying frenzy.” Here are the top five overall real estate markets Redfin expects to outperform in 2023.
- Lake County, IL
- Chicago, IL
- Milwaukee, WI
- Albany, NY
- Baltimore, MD
Before the end of the year, PwC released its annual report outlining the trends to watch in the new year, including markets that are poised to outperform. For multifamily specifically, PwC uses various metrics to build out a buy, sell, or hold chart for major markets in the country.
According to Alicia Underlee Nelson of Rent., the South and Midwest are outpacing the Northeast and West to inward renter migration, with several key states leading the trend.
The report concludes that “[r]enters are on the move. Although renters moved away from the largest metros in Illinois and Georgia this quarter, the South and Midwest continue to attract renters from all over the country. Migration away from metropolitan areas in the West and Northeast continued for the third quarter in a row. And prospective residents remain willing to move to new geographic regions.”
It’s always worth looking at the more affordable homebuying markets as they will certainly impact rental demand and supply. Realtor.com released its top markets for buyers in 2023, emphasizing that these were chosen primarily due to purchase affordability rates.
CRED iQ recently released an analysis that examines multifamily revenue trends, aggregating year-end financial data for the 100 largest primary and secondary multifamily markets. Revenue was analyzed on a per unit basis and adjusted for property-level occupancy performance “to determine the highest grossing multifamily markets in the country.”
Finally, based on trend analysis from 2022, Rent Cafe outlined the top markets for the year as we enter 2023. Miami was reportedly the hottest rental market, due to strong occupancy and high lease renewal rates.
Expert Take on Best Multifamily Markets 2023
“A four-generation surge of household formation and housing preference will buoy fundamental apartment demand through and beyond 2030. Exponential advances in technology, data, and artificial intelligence capability and applications will have impacts on building cycle, property operations and management, and resident experience cost-versus-value models…Policymakers’ ever more restrictive land use barriers will spread sharper supply-versus-demand mismatches to more cities, straining market-based solutions and sculpting evolving geographies as people seek refuge from high-cost locales.” — PwC